By Thai Newsroom Reporters
PALANG PRACHARATH leader Prawit Wongsuwan might probably take the helm of government only for a year after an upcoming general election, given decisive votes from both MPs and senators, forecast NIDA Poll director Suwicha Pao-ari last night (Feb.20).
Prawit who is contesting the nationwide election as the sole partisan candidate for prime minister might probably be given decisive votes to become prime minister only for about a year and then be pressed by coalition partners and others to dissolve the House of Representatives, Suwicha predicted.
Given the likelihood of the Palang Pracharath boss being voted prime minister after the general election, the future coalition partners may include the Pheu Thai, guided by de facto party boss Thaksin Shinawatra, and a few other parties apart from his own camp, Suwicha said.
Though the Palang Pracharath will very likely get less MP seats than the Pheu Thai, Prawit might probably win the premiership and head a Palang Pracharath-led coalition in which the Pheu Thai may be proportionately given most of the cabinet seats, according to the NIDA Poll director.
The Pheu Thai might probably score a landslide victory winning just over 250 MP seats but not as many as 300 as earlier forecast by Thaksin so that they could probably otherwise do without the Palang Pracharath, Suwicha said.
The Palang Pracharath boss is more or less speculated to muster votes of support from a majority of 500 elected MPs plus most of the 250 senators, all of whom had been handpicked by himself and coup leader-turned-premier Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Given the fact that all the unelected senators are faring out their five-year term scheduled to end next year, the Palang Pracharath boss would probably be given the corresponding period of a one-year time to run the country after which he might be practically pressed by the Pheu Thai and others to dissolve the House and call a general election in 2024, Suwicha predicted.
A new generation of senators after the current one has run out of term will no longer have the constitutional power to vote alongside the MPs for head of a post-election government, the NIDA academic pointed out.
“Even though the Pheu Thai could possibly win slightly over half the total MP seats in the general election, they would probably look to join hands with the Palang Pracharath on condition that the former give the premiership to the latter,” Suwicha said.
The senators are very unlikely to vote for one of a trio of Pheu Thai contenders for prime minister, ostensibly including Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, or anybody else other than Prawit or Prayut who is contesting to retain power under the Ruam Thai Sang Chart banners.
Though the Ruam Thai Sang Chart could probably secure more than 25 MP seats as required by law to be eligible to name a partisan candidate for prime minister, the Palang Pracharath will very likely win more MP seats, rendering it unbecoming for Prawit to give way for Prayut in the race for premiership, the NIDA academic said.
Top and Front Page: Palang Pracharath leader and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Top photo: Matichon, Front Page photo: Naewna
Insert: NIDA Poll director Suwicha Pao-ari. Photo: Thai Rath
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