By Thai Newsroom Reporters
IT WILL BE LIKELY FOR the Pheu Thai and the Move Forward to combinedly get more than half the total of 100 party-listed MPs in the May 14 general election, according to Chulalongkorn University political scientist Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee.
Siripan made a prediction on the nationwide election last night (Apr.4) that the Pheu Thai will get 40 party-listed MPs, plus or minus five, whilst the Move Forward will get 20 party-listed MPs, plus or minus five, in addition to a number of constituency-based MPs.
That compares to a combined 30 MPs to be shared among a few other major parties, namely the Palang Pracharath, the Ruam Thai Sang Chart, the Bhumjaithai and the Democrat, competing in party-listed mode, the Chulalongkorn academic predicted.
A party is roughly calculated to secure an average of 350,000 votes for each of their party-listed MPs in the May 14 election, according to the political scientist.
Nevertheless, a decisive number of MPs who may constitute a majority of elected lawmakers, either from a single party or more, and set up a post-election government will certainly come from among those candidates running for a total of 400 constituency-based MPs and not from among those vying for a total of 100 party-listed MPs, Siripan said.
Most voters will primarily pick a contesting party on the basis of their sustained faith or the party’s current popularity as a whole since those who are going to the polls seem to know very little or not at all about most of the party-listed contestants, she said.
In the meantime, there could probably be several factors for the voters to contemplate and pick an individual, relatively familiar candidate running in constituency-based mode, she said.
Yet, over half the total of MPs and senators combined or at least 376 is legally required to endorse a partisan candidate for prime minister.
The current constitution, designed by the 2014 coup junta, empowers the 250 unelected senators to vote alongside the elected MPs for head of a post-election government in a joint House/Senate session.
Above and Front Page: Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat.Top photo: Amarin TV, Front Page photo: Matichon
Insert: Chulalongkorn University political scientist Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee. Photo: Matichon