PROGRESSIVE Movement Chairman Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit warned that the ageing society is akin to a ticking time bomb and Thailand must upgrade the workers’ skills and create its own technology to stay competitive, Thai Rath newspaper said yesterday (Nov. 2).
Speaking at the Skill Force Expo 2024 at Siam Paragon on the subject “What’s next? The Next Step for Thais on the World Business Map”, Thanathorn showed a graph on the Thai economy over the past 30 years.
While looking broadly it appears that the Thai economy has continued to grow despite periods of recession.
However a detailed look starting by going back to 1997, the second half of that decade, the Thai economy grew by an average of 7.5% per year, after the Tom Yum Kung crisis, the growth was 5.3% a year, after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, it dropped to 3.2% per year and after the Covid crisis, down to 2% a year.
As economic growth has been decreasing in each decade this clearly shows that Thailand’s ability to compete is decreasing.
Moreover Thailand is also being overwhelmed by the ageing population, which he said is like a ticking bomb for the future as over 20% of the population is now over 60 years of age.
The key reason the younger generation don’t want to have children is because raising them to have a good quality of life with a family and a house plus a car is difficult for most people in the country.
The challenge in the next 20 to 30 years is the number of working people required to take care of or carry the elderly.
Data from 2010 shows the proportion was one child or an elderly person per 2.03 working age people. However by 2040 the proportion will change to one child or elderly person per 1.26 working age people.
This means Thailand would have to increase its productivity over 38% over the next 30 years which is not easy, Thanathorn said, adding this would only ensure the country stays stationary but not move forward.
When compared to some other countries, it is clear that the starting point is not very different. For example 1960 South Korea’s GDP per capita was US$158 while Thailand’s was US$101, a difference of 1.56 times.
Sixty years later, today the difference is 4.64 times,
An important factor spurring one country to grow faster than the other is scientific and technological capabilities, he said, adding countries that have pushed themselves to become rich all have their own technologies.
It is not easy to boost a country’s competitiveness or ensure business success with key routes being nurturing and developing technology in the country and increasing people’s skills.
Thanathorn gave an example of robots having now come in so a new skill could be robot maintenance.
It may take decades to cultivate skills, technology, people and ecosystems but it is not too late to start, he mentioned, adding both the private sector and the government could participate in doing so.
He warned that if this is not done he could not imagine how Thais would survive in the current context or compete with other countries in the future.
CAPTION:
Progressive Movement leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, top and Front Page, and the attentive audience, insert. Photo: Thai Rath
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