By Thai Newsroom Reporters
THE COURT-SUSPENDED prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been quietly assured of a victory in court over an impeachment lawsuit, thus resolutely refusing to step down at any time from now until Aug.29, the date on which the Constitutional Court is scheduled to deliver a verdict on it, according to a noted academic.
Pornchai Theppanya, a former dean of Ramkhamhaeng University’s Faculty of Political Science, posted on his Facebook page to forecast Paetongtarn, daughter of de facto Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra, may have remained confident of a survival in court with the predicted likelihood of being spared a court-ordered dismissal as elected prime minister, thus so far continuing to stay put and not going to resign under pressure since she has been suspended by court from performing as head of government pending the court ruling scheduled for Aug.29.
“As long as Paetongtarn decides against stepping down until the judgment day has come, it definitely means chances of her survival in court virtually amount to 1,000%,” Pornchai put it.
On the other hand, Thaksin’s daughter would eventually call it quits at any time from now until next week to preempt the Aug.29 verdict only if the de facto Pheu Thai boss seriously believed a defeat is looming in lieu of a triumph for his daughter in court, according to the ex-Ramkhamhaeng political scientist.
For that reason, the power-playing Thaksin would tell his daughter to opt out sooner than later by stepping down ahead of her judgment day, thus skipping a court hearing scheduled for tomorrow (Aug.21) during which she may testify before the court and sparing the judges the burdens of deliberating on the historic lawsuit and handing out their verdict, Pornchai said.
Simply by stepping down ahead of the Aug.29 court verdict on her impeachment case, the country’s second woman prime minister could practically keep her political future intact, given the Pheu Thai being under constant control of her power-playing father and herself whereas the eventuality of being ousted by court would almost certainly render more damage to her personal credibility, albeit under sustained support from her father.
Paetongtarn has encountered the historic impeachment case filed against her by a group of 36 senators on charges of perpetrating an act of treason in severe breach of the ethical code and in lack of evident honesty, thus warranting her being deprived of elected premiership pertaining to last June’s leaked cellphone talk between Cambodian leader Hun Sen and herself about Thai-Cambodian border conflict which has culminated in five-day clashes along the disputed border in northeastern Thai provinces of Ubon Ratchathani, Sisaket, Surin and Buriram, resulting in many fatalities and injuries on both sides.
The embattled prime minister is more or less anticipated to testify before the Constitutional Court tomorrow to defend herself from such allegations after she has earlier submitted a relevant affidavit to the court and kept herself tight-lipped about it since.
Meanwhile, Thaksin has quietly conducted an all-in lobbyism to keep his daughter in power amidst allegations of hush-hush money talk emerging to the extent that as much as 2.5 billion baht in secret payoff has been offered in exchange for her survival from the pivotal legal battle so she could continue to run the country probably until 2027 when the legislative and executive branches will have finished their four-year term.
But Pornchai categorically ruled out any attempted bribery over the historic case against the prime minister, saying such a huge sum of alleged payoff would be far too much and that no highly-respectable judges would dare to take it. “They would not dare to take just 10 million baht in kickback at the cost of their honour and pride, let alone risks of being subject to legal penalties,” he said.
Members of the Pheu Thai rank and file undoubtedly forecast a legal victory for their boss’s daughter-turned-prime minister with some predicting a narrow 5:4 vote in her favour whilst others anticipating an overwhelming 9:0 vote among the total of nine judges of the Constitutional Court.
But most well-known academics and government critics have forecast a complete blowout for her either in narrow or overwhelming fashion, primarily on the basis of her evident blunders allegedly tantamount to an act of treason as charged under the impeachment lawsuit.
According to political analyst Thanaporn Sriyakul, though odds of Paetongtarn’s survival in court might probably be as scarce as 1%, he said she could possibly make it as had been the case of her own father who had narrowly survived 2001’s impeachment bid under assets concealment charges. The 15 judges of the previous Constitutional Court voted 8:7 to rule Thaksin, the then-prime minister and Thai Rak Thai leader, not guilty. The judges ruled Thaksin had merely made an “inadvertent mistake” pertaining to the complicated assets transfers and arrangements on his part, thus exonerating him from all charges.
Likewise, Paetongtarn could possibly be saved for similar excuses in court where the judges might probably determine her overly-submissive, compromising verbal expressions during her personal cellphone chitchat with Hun Sen as an “inadvertent mistake” or simply a “slip of the tongue” without any hidden, malignant intent which could have otherwise jeopardised Thailand’s territorial integrity, national interests and prestige as charged under the impeachment lawsuit, according to partisan sources.
Government critic/former MP Theptai Senapong said Thaksin would almost certainly stand in the way of Bhumjaithai leader/former deputy prime minister-cum-interior minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s possible rise to premiership if Paetongtarn was deposed by court because the Bhumjaithai, currently being part of the opposition bloc under de facto party boss Newin Chidchob, would likely continue to be the Pheu Thai’s archrivals in the next general election, given the fact that both camps will most certainly contest against each other for the same targets of constituents nationwide.
The de facto Pheu Thai boss is largely known to look forward to keeping his neo-conservative camp as core of a future coalition government either with or without Newin’s ultra-conservative camp as a coalition partner.
CAPTIONS:
Top and Front Page: Suspended prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
First insert: De facto Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra.
Second insert:Academic Pornchai Theppanya.
Third insert: political analyst Thanaporn Sriyakul. All photos: Thai Rath
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