By Thai Newsroom Reporters
THE PHEU THAI, now part of the opposition bloc, will likely have a slim chance of becoming core of a future government whilst the Bhumjaithai, core of the current coalition government, and the People’s, the largest opposition camp, may roughly have a 50:50 opportunity to head one following a general election anticipated in the upcoming March, according to a NIDA academic.
Though the previously-ruling Pheu Thai had recently held a partisan rally at the party’s headquarters to exhibit their “readiness” to contest the general election, nobody has yet been named partisan candidates for prime minister after the nationwide race to parliament whilst those Pheu Thai MPs, past and present, former cabinet members and others attending the much-publicised event could possibly leave for other parties and seek re-election under the new partisan tickets, said NIDA Political & Development Strategies Project Director Pichai Ratanadilok na Phuket.
The neo-conservative Pheu Thai allegedly steered by de facto party boss-turned-inmate Thaksin Shinawatra will likely be outvoted by the ultra-conservative Bhumjaithai under de facto party boss Newin Chidchob, the reformist People’s and others in the next election largely speculated in the upcoming March, leaving Thaksin’s camp the relatively scarce opportunity to set up and head a government of their own, the NIDA academic forecast.
The Pheu Thai will no longer have so much hype as they had earlier enjoyed in the time of the de facto party boss-turned-inmate as a former prime minister over the last couple of decades whilst the Bhumjaithai, core of the current government under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, would undoubtedly raise even more popularity among constituents nationwide, according to the NIDA academic.
Whilst the Bhumjaithai and People’s are speculated to win 100-plus MP seats each, Thaksin’s camp are expected to grab far less than 100, giving the latter a little chance of heading a future coalition government following the nationwide election pledged by the prime minister who concurrently leads the core of the current coalition to take place by March or after he dissolves the House of Representatives in a four-month period from now to have the people go to the polls.
In particular, Pheu Thai MPs currently representing lower northeastern constituencies geographically lying in vicinity of the Thai-Cambodian border would probably depart for the likes of Newin’s camp or others to strengthen the likelihood of their being re-elected and would certainly not welcome the predicted phenomenon in which they be largely defeated if they continued to stay with Thaksin’s camp, Pichai said.
Those would include “Big House” MPs who might quietly contemplate skipping over to other parties where they could probably be offered ministerial seats in a post-election government in addition to “resources” available for use with their electoral campaigns as well as the so-called Sam Mitr Group, a faction inside the Pheu Thai jointly headed by Somsak Thepsuthin and Suriya Juangroongruangkit who have several MPs representing upper central constituencies and elsewhere under their command, Pichai pointed out.
“Even though Suriya has been named a new director of Pheu Thai electoral campaigns, he and Somsak could possibly lead an exodus of their protege MPs to depart for other camps at the last minute,” the NIDA academic said.
The Sam Mitr faction leaders have usually managed to join coalition governments and assume ministerial seats in previous ones since the last couple of decades.
Also speculated to leave the Pheu Thai for other camps are veteran MPs Kriang Kantinand and his son of Ubon Ratchathani, Pongsakorn Annopporn alongside his daughter and brother of Khon Kaen, Chuwit “Kui” Pithakpornpallop of Ubon Ratchathani and Sutin Khlangsang of Maha Sarakham, among others.
In Thai political jargon, “Big House” refers to MPs, their family members and close associates who may have usually won votes in previous elections at varied levels ranging from elections for MPs to those for heads of provincial administrations, also known as Nayok Or Bor Jor, and mayors to heads of tambon administrations, also known as Nayok Or Bor Tor whereas “resources” and “ammunition” refer to the vote-buying money.
All elected lawmakers may switch parties at their own will on condition that they have legally registered themselves for membership of a new camp for no less than a 30-day time prior to an election date.
Thaksin’s daughter/court-deposed prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra had been invariably blamed for the exponential downfall of the Pheu Thai popularity, especially among the lower northeastern constituents, following a leaked cellphone talk between senior Cambodian leader Hun Sen and herself and five-day clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces along the disputed border in the provinces of Ubon Ratchathani, Sisaket, Surin and Buriram.
Most, if not all, of those lawmakers representing the lower northeastern constituencies and elsewhere throughout the Isarn region might probably stand the chance of being defeated rather than being re-elected under the Pheu Thai banners in the next race to parliament, primarily due to shambles and mess committed by Thaksin’s daughter who had been ousted at the order of the Constitutional Court for severely breaching the code of political ethic tantamount to an act of treason at the cost of Thailand’s territorial integrity, interests and prestige pertaining to her mishandling of Thai-Cambodian border conflict.
CAPTIONS:
Top and Front Page: Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, left, People’s leader Nattapong Ruengpanyawut, right, with Pheu Thai Party logo at centre. Photo – Amarin TV
First insert: Former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Photo – Thai Rath
Second insert: NIDA academic Pichai Ratanadilok na Phuket. Photo – Thai Rath
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