THE US Supreme Court ruling that a law President Donald Trump relied on to impose tariffs does not authorise the president to do so will have a positive impact on global economic growth in terms of the volume and value of world trade with Asian economies, including Thailand, benefiting, a respected Thai academic said today (Feb. 21).
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Anusorn Thammachai, former member of the Bank of Thailand’s board and former dean of the Faculty of Economics, Mahidol University and the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that while the ruling has led to Trump administration’s “protectionism” and “economic nationalism” stumbling it has not changed the direction of the Trump administration’s trade and economic policies with the America First concept remaining the core plank.
This US Supreme Court ruling will be a crucial turning point for the global economy and the global trading system this year and in the coming period.
Export growth this year is expected to be better than originally projected. It could show positive growth, contrary to previous forecasts that predicted negative growth due to a high base (last year) and a slowdown in global trade volume.
However, the growth of Thailand’s export sector may be limited by the effects of temporary factors in 2025 that accelerate import-export activities, or front-loading, while volatility in foreign countries and concerns about food security will boost demand for Thai agricultural products and food.
Even so, the new 10% tariff increase from the Trump administration needs to be assessed to understand its complex and uncertain impact on the trade sector.
The risk of war between Iran and the United States is also putting pressure on energy prices and the global economy.
The technological cycle is transitioning to the era of AI and electric vehicles (EVs),which will drive demand for electronic goods, with Thailand being a key production base.
It is expected that the suspension of Trump’s tariffs will cause the US dollar to weaken and the Thai baht will continue to strengthen.
In the short term, the US may have an increased trade deficit and will need to find additional funds to compensate for the budget deficit from the loss of revenue from customs duties, which will be a significant fiscal burden for the Trump administration.
However, the suspension of Trump’s tariffs will have a much more positive impact on the US economic growth rate in the medium and long term, Dr. Anusorn pointed out.
The global stock market is expected to cautiously respond positively because there is still uncertainty about what additional trade protectionist measures and import tariffs the Trump administration could implement.
US importing businesses will receive refunds of approximately $129-133 billion. However, a major risk is that the Trump administration may find other legal avenues to enforce import tariffs.
Such actions would create more uncertainty in the global trading system. But using other avenues to raise import tariffs is a time-consuming process, and the power to impose tariffs must obtain congressional approval.
The impact of the latest 10% tariff increase from the Trump administration on the trade sector needs to be assessed.
While many countries have already concluded trade negotiations and import tariff agreements with the United States, some countries are still negotiating.
In addition, it is anticipated that the Trump administration is likely to use the Trade Act, Section 301, Special 301, and Section 232, which grant the executive power, to protect trade and safeguard the economic interests of the United States,
Dr. Anusorn urged the Thai government to closely monitor changes in US trade policy to determine proactive measures to counter them. Trade policies must emphasise the creation of new industrial bases to generate new income streams and markets.
The capacity to expand and maintain trade interests must be developed.
Developing an information system, creating a trade early warning system, forecasting, setting goals and seeking trade opportunities, expanding and maintaining global market share, developing a services trade system linked to manufacturing industries, and establishing a unified trade negotiating organization to handle negotiations at multilateral, bilateral, and regional levels, are crucial. Furthermore, Thailand must be developed into a regional trade and investment hub.
CAPTIONS:
Top – US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House after the Supreme Court ruled against his use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs, on Feb. 20, 2026 in Washington, DC. Photo – Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/AFP and published by CNA
Insert – Dr. Anusorn Tamajai. Photo – Naewna
Front Page – US President Donald Trump. Photo – AP Alex Brandon and published by Yahoo!News
Also read:
Trump vows 10% global tariff after stinging court rebuke
Tax hike will make Thai airports more expensive than world’s best
PM tells Finance Minister GDP growth must exceed 2.5% in 2026
Could the public handle 1,000 baht Koh Samui bridge toll?
