THE HOUSING MARKET shook off a downturn in the first half of this year with transfers reaching 167,000 units, a 17.6% increase, driven by government measures, PPTVHD36 said today (Aug. 27).
Sales of second-hand homes soared accounting for 63% of the total, reflecting a focus on value for money. At the same time purchases by foreign buyers, particularly Chinese, remained weak, except for Russian buyers who have aggressively entered Phuket and Chonburi markets, with their purchases growing by 75.9%.
Mr. Mana Nimitvanich, director of the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank (GHB), shared data on the housing market performance in the first half of 2026 and the outlook for 2026-2027.
He found that the housing market has recovered significantly, supported by government measures and the extension of reduction of property transfer and mortgage registration fees by another year, from July 1, 2026, to June 30, 2027, which will help sustain the market into 2027.
The second-hand home market, particularly the lower-priced segment continues to expand, but the market still faces factors that need monitoring, including high levels of household debt, stricter lending standards by financial institutions, rising construction and transportation costs, and global economic uncertainty stemming from geopolitical issues and protectionist trade measures.
Big jump in the first half of 2026
The value of the 167,665 residential property units transferred nationwide in the first half of this year, up from 142,619 units in the same period last year, which is 17.6% increase, reached 429.839 billion baht, a 9.8% year-on-year rise from 391.601 billion baht.
Key factors contributing to this growth include reduced transfer and mortgage registration fees, as well as relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for housing loans. Both measures began to take effect in the second quarter of 2025 and continued to have an impact in 2026, driving transfers, especially the accelerated transfers in June.
Biggest demand was for low-rise homes, including single detached houses, reaching 70% of total transfer value. Altogether 111,624 units were transferred, an increase of 14.6%, with the value reaching 299.432 billion baht, a 6.1% jump.
Condominiums accounted for the remaining 30% of the value, with 56,041 units transferred, a significant increase of 24.1%, and value reaching 130.407 billion baht, up 19.3%.
Second-hand homes dominate the market at 63%
Another interesting aspect of the market is that it is now dominated by real demand rather than investment or speculation. The split of 63% for second-hand homes and 37% for new homes shows that the former is gaining interest because they offer better value per square metre and are closer to the city centre compared to the latter, which are often located in suburban areas.
This meets the needs of buyers during a period of gradual economic recovery with REIC’s study showing that the 2.01-3.00-million-baht segment increased to 24%, while the under 1-million-baht range plunged to 27%.
Foreign condo purchases slow down but Russian segment doing well
The transfer of condominiums to foreigners in the first half of this year shows an overall dip with the total reaching 6,533 units, down 8.8%, and value amounting to 28.267 billion baht, a drop of 1.5%.
The three nationalities with the highest transfer values were Chinese, Russians, and Myanmar. Chinese buyers remained the main buyers in Bangkok and Chonburi, but their transfer value decreased by 27.7% to 6.874 billion baht. Russian buyers accounted for 3,603 billion baht, a significant increase of 75.9%, with strong growth in Phuket and Chonburi. Myanmar buyers accounted for 2.457 billion baht, a decrease of 16.2%, primarily snapping up units in Bangkok.
Other nationalities buying condos in Thailand include the US, Taiwan, France, the UK, Germany, Australia, and India, in that order. REIC believes that the slowdown in foreign purchasing power is partly due to the uncertain global economy.
New home loans are up but household debt remains a concern
Outstanding personal housing loans in the first half of 2026 totalled 5.17 trillion baht, an increase of 2.6%. New personal housing loans amounted to 289.315 billion baht, an increase of 12.2%, particularly in the second quarter which saw a strong growth of 18.4%, consistent with the increase in property transfers.
Regarding the NPL situation, there are currently no clear signs of an increase, and it remains at a controllable level. This is partly due to the relatively high lending standards of financial institutions, leading to close risk monitoring.
Full year growth expected but slower than first half
For full year 2026, REIC estimates, under the assumption of GDP growth of 2.25%, an MRR interest rate of 6.55%, and inflation of 1.75%, that despite the accelerated transfers in the second quarter, the extension of the reduction of transfer and mortgage registration fees till June 30, 2027, total property transfers will reach 323,479 units, up 2.3%, with a transfer value of 880.760 billion baht, up 1.8%.
New personal housing loans are expected to reach 571.066 billion baht, an increase of 1.4%. That full-year growth may slow down compared to the first half is due to some accelerated transfers, or front-loading, having already occurred. However, the overall picture is still expected to show growth
By 2027, the value of property transfers is projected to reach 900 billion baht
For 2027, REIC forecasts that the value of property transfers will increase to 908.358 billion baht, growing by 3.1%, while the number of units transferred will reach 320,617 units, a decrease of 0.9%. The increase in the value of transfers, contrary to the decrease in the number of units, is partly due to higher construction costs and the enforcement of new land valuation price cycle for 2027–2030 from January 1, 2027.
CAPTIONS:
Top and Front Page: High-rises in Bangkok.
Inserted: Representative image of low-rise housing market. All photos – PPTVHD36
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