By Thai Newsroom Reporters
DE FACTO PHEU THAI boss/inmate Thaksin Shinawatra will likely not be able to spearhead the opposition party’s electoral campaign for a general election which may be held between the upcoming February and March due to his being literally put behind bars and preoccupied with sustained legal battles, according to partisan sources.
Given current circumstances surrounding the politically powerful inmate who is serving a one-year term at Klong Prem prison due to a curtailed court sentence on charges of misconduct perpetrated during his previous premiership and more or less speculated to be released on parole in early March, it will be quite unlikely for the Pheu Thai rank and file to see their de facto boss conduct and spearhead the neo-conservative, populist party’s electoral campaign which might probably occur a few weeks before he is literally freed from jail.
That the Office of the Attorney-General has finally decided to appeal a lese majeste lawsuit against the former prime minister in the Appellate Court overruling the Criminal Court’s earlier verdict to waive the case has dealt him a heavy blow, albeit without affecting the Corrections Department’s legal process to be provided on leniency basis to the extent that he be released on parole after he has spent a six-month time in jail since last September.
Thaksin’s legal battle over the draconian law, better known as Section 112 of the Criminal Code, could possibly consume many years and probably end up in the Supreme Court for final judgment.
Besides, the twisted phenomenon in which the Supreme Court has ordered for the billionaire power player Thaksin to pay some 17 billion baht in overdue income tax to the Revenue Department for the sales of his Shin Corp. shares to Singapore-based Temasek Holdings over the last couple of decades has merely rubbed salt into wound.
Given the likelihood of the de facto Pheu Thai boss being denied the opportunity to actively lead the partisan electoral campaign, chances of the neo-conservative, populist party coming out as the second-largest elected camp, let alone becoming the largest elected one, will be quite slim whilst it remains to be seen how many more among the 141 Pheu Thai MPs may follow suit of those who have practically departed for other camps now that their de facto boss remains literally behind bars and a run-up to the nationwide race to parliament is approaching, the partisan sources said.
In particular, Somsak Thepsuthin and Suriya Juangroongruangkit, the duo of leaders of Sam Mit Group, a faction inside the Pheu Thai, might probably opt out by skipping over to another party alongside several MPs mostly representing upper-central constituencies under their command though the latter has already been named director of the Pheu Thai electoral campaign and might probably as well be named one of a trio of partisan candidates for prime minister.
The recent change of the Pheu Thai leadership from Thaksin’s daughter/court-deposed prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to former deputy finance minister/current Pheu Thai MP Julapun Amornvivat was viewed as a superficial, nominal formality designed to free the Shinawatra family from the long-endured burdens of sponsoring campaign finance for most of the party’s electoral contestants.
However, if released during a run-up to the election for MPs, Thaksin whose personal hype might probably more or less remain, especially in the eye of the northern and northeastern people, would probably secure “pity-generated” votes for his partisan contestants in both party-listed and constituency-based modes from among Red Shirt activists and other constituents in all regions of the country in addition to a smorgasbord of resources to be provided for “Big House” contenders’ campaigns in their respective constituencies.
Importantly, the de facto Pheu Thai boss will likely manipulate to see to it that his popularity-ebbing party jump onto the bandwagon of a post-election coalition, no matter if he will have remained behind bars or been released on parole. But he himself might be no longer a Mr. Fix-It, otherwise endowed with decisive roles which he had considerably enjoyed during the surprise setup of a previous Pheu Thai-led coalition following the 2023 election which had sent real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn rising to power respectively.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul might probably return power to the people by dissolving the House of Representatives some time next month to be followed by the nationwide election for MPs in a 60-day time as provided by law which would probably take place around late February, keeping the de facto Pheu Thai boss/inmate at bay, the partisan sources said.
Anutin who concurrently performs as interior minister and leader of the Bhumjaithai, core of the current coalition government under de facto party boss Newin Chidchob, might probably dissolve the House to call a general election shortly after legislation for amendment of the coup junta-designed constitution which primarily features the setup of a constitution drafting committee passes its final reading at parliament some time next month.
Nevertheless, the prime minister would almost certainly dissolve the House only if he got wind of a quiet move of the Pheu Thai, currently part of the opposition bloc, to file a censure motion against him or any members of his cabinet which is supposedly to be followed by confidence and no-confidence votes. The prime minister is legally prohibited from dissolving the House after a censure motion has been formally lodged.
Meanwhile, the current hypes of Newin’s ultra-conservative camp in general and the prime minister in particular have ironically declined to some extent primarily due to the Bhumjaithai-led government’s failure to effectively combat Cambodia-based scam and money-laundering networks which have devastatingly preyed on Thai and world victims, according to NIDA Political & Development Strategies Director Pichai Ratanadilok na Phuket.
Anutin may have apparently felt too much obliged to fire Deputy Prime Minister-cum-Agriculture & Cooperatives Minister/de facto Klatham boss Thammanat Prompao over his alleged association with notorious wheeler-dealer Benjamin Mauerberger, alias Ben Smith, who has been suspected of involvement in transnational money-laundering activities. Thammanat had directed dozens of renegade MPs into casting their votes of support for the Bhumjaithai leader in lieu of Pheu Thai rival candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri for prime minister.
Neither has the prime minister fared very satisfactorily in the eye of the general public toward sustained Thai-Cambodian conflict which had culminated in last August’s armed clashes along the disputed border resulting in a large number of fatalities and injuries on both sides, according to the NIDA academic.
Anutin has been invariably taken to task by government critics and others for not doing enough or being too slow to take crackdown measures against suspected scammers and money-launderers based in Cambodia and slipping into Thailand whilst certain high-profile politicians suspected of surreptitiously fostering association with the rogue racketeers have yet remained intact.
The pre-election popularity of the Bhumjaithai may not substantially derive from the sustained copay project since many people would probably feel indifferent and sentimentally unobliged to the revived populist campaign originally implemented by a previous government under former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and would only view it as a way of returning part of the taxpayer’s money to them.
In the meantime, the hype of the reformist People’s, currently the largest opposition party, may not only be sustained but more or less increased during the run-up to the general election to the extent that they could possibly come out as the largest elected camp, the NIDA academic forecast.
If the People’s could convince the people of the unfamiliar rationale for their endorsing Anutin for prime minister supposedly on condition that he orchestrate concerted efforts for constitution amendment and dissolve the House to call a general election in a four-month time or by the end of the upcoming January, their pre-election popularity would not plummet to an alarming extent, Pichai said.
In comparison to the ruling Bhumjaithai, the opposition People’s have appeared relatively coherent and attentive to ways and means to effectively address the transnational scam and money-laundering issue. The repeated event in which House Committee on State Security, Border Affairs & National Strategies and Reforms Chair/People’s MP Rangsiman Rome has insisted that the prime minister dismiss the deputy prime minister-cum-agriculture & cooperatives minister for alleged connection with the suspected rogue racketeers might terminally render a plus to the reformist camp and simultaneously a minus to the ultra-conservative camp.
CAPTIONS:
De facto Pheu Thai boss/inmate Thaksin Shinawatra. Above photo – Amarin TV, Front Page photo – Thai Rath
First insert – Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Photo – Amarin TV
Second insert – NIDA Political & Development Strategies Director Pichai Ratanadilok na Phuket. Photo – Thai Rath
Third insert – People’s MP Rangsiman Rome. Photo – PPTVHD36
Also read:
What happened to Thaksin is unacceptable: Pheu Thai MP
OAG to appeal lese majeste lawsuit against Thaksin in Appellate Court
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