KASIKORN Research Centre estimates that the critical flooding in the South has so far cost the regional economy 25 billion baht with 800,000 households affected and 400,000 rai of farmland damaged, PPTVHD36 said today (Nov. 26).
The widespread inundation, in Songkhla as well as several other southern provinces including Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Surat Thani, Narathiwat, Pattani, Trang, Satun, and Yala, started last Friday (Nov. 21) with the situation not having improved yet and sadly there remains risk of additional rainfall and forest runoffs.
Kasikorn Research Center assessed the impact of this disaster in two ways:
– Firstly immediate impact with economic activities disrupted, which can be estimated.
– Secondly is the damage to assets, which is more complex, as it may be gradually felt by multiple sectors in future and in addition to households, the government, financial institutions and traders have suffered losses.
It is estimated that the floods will shave off 25 billion baht from the southern economy over a one-month period, or approximately 0.13% of Thailand’s nominal GDP. This is based on the assumption that the inundation is severe for the first 10-15 days and gradually eases off over the next 10-15 days. The primary impact is on Songkhla province.
The initial impact was felt in almost every area, primarily due to the disruption of economic activities in the service sector (accommodations, restaurants, retail, transportation, etc.) and industrial production (such as agriculture and processed food), which account for over 56% and 18%, respectively of Songkhla’s economy. This also included the disruption of basic utilities such as electricity and water (over 3%).
This disaster has also occurred towards yearend when seasonal tourism typically boosts economic activity. It coincides with Thailand hosting the SEA Games during Dec.9-20 with Songkhla being one of the venues for multiple sports competitions.
Also hit in Songkhla and other provinces is the agriculture sector, covering rubber and oil palm plantations, as well as aquaculture and fisheries.
However, as the floods gradually subside, victims will experience additional asset damage management of buildings, vehicles, and other household items. The realisation of this secondary impact, including repairs, restoration, and new purchases, will likely take time and depend on several factors, including household savings and income-earning capacity, the economic situation, assistance from creditors and business partners, including financial institutions, and government measures.
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Top and Front Page – Songkhla badly flooded. Photos shared on Facebook by Weerapong Narongkul
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